Experts Predict What The Housing Market Will Look Like In 2023 – Forbes
New home and multifamily construction projects slated for delivery in 2024 and 2025 are expected to … [+]
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The housing market is sending clearer signals that historically low mortgage rates and the home-buying frenzy have come to an end. As we near the end of 2022, here’s a look at the expectations of real estate experts for 2023.
Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist: After several years of an unambiguous sellers’ market, the 2023 housing market could feel more like a nobody’s market. We expect to see some buyer advantages in the form of 22.8% more homes for sale, however, the increase will result largely from homes taking longer to sell amid challenging affordability conditions. For-sale homes will remain high-priced, with the national annual median price for 2023 expected to advance another 5.4%—less than half the pace observed in 2022. Still high prices mean that homeowners are likely to walk away from a home sale with significant equity, if they decide to venture into the market and can find a buyer. On the whole, however, we expect home sales to be dramatically lower, down 14.1% compared to 2022 as both buyers and sellers pull back from a housing market and economy in transition. We expect the annual tally for 2023 to be roughly in line with the recent pace of home sales in late 2022.
For many potential first-time home buyers, 2023 will herald a delayed dream rather than a celebration as home costs exceed what’s possible on their budget and income. As fewer households make the jump to homeownership, increased rental demand could help keep rents moving higher. Nationwide, the median rental is projected to increase 6.3% in price, even as an influx of new multifamily housing helps to better meet rental demand. Renters looking to save in the year ahead may consider moving further out to the suburbs.
A still strong jobs market will keep incomes growing at a faster than historically average pace (3.9%), but they will not exceed expected inflation (4.1%) which means that many households will continue to make tough budget tradeoffs. After years of high-flying tech cities dominating real estate who’s-who lists, this year’s top performers are expected to be modest, mid-sized domestic industry hubs in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. The slow and steady real estate markets in these areas where homes continue to be affordable will be the stars in 2023, better weathering the affordability challenges that loom ahead.
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